Trading Case Studies
Annotated chart walkthroughs showing how we analyze setups, manage risk, and plan trades - including setups that failed.
These are educational examples of technical analysis applied to historical charts. They are not client results and not a promise of future performance.
NVDA Cup & Handle Breakout
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Classic cup and handle formation after AI-driven rally consolidation. The cup formed over 8 weeks with a 22% depth, followed by a tight handle. Breakout occurred on strong volume.
Key Lessons
- Patience paid off - waited for handle formation instead of early entry
- Volume confirmation was key - breakout on 2x average volume
- Used cup depth for target calculation
- Stop below handle low limited risk
$118.50
$142.00
$112.00
3.6:1
+19.8%
Bitcoin Wave 3 Extension
Bitcoin (BTC)
Identified Wave 3 in a larger degree uptrend. Wave 3 extensions to 1.618 of Wave 1 are common in crypto. Entry on Wave 2 retracement to 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Key Lessons
- Wave 3 often extends to 1.618 in crypto - targeted this level
- Entered on Wave 2 pullback to golden ratio (0.618)
- Wider stop for crypto volatility was necessary
- Trailed stop as wave progressed
$67,500
$98,000
$62,000
5.5:1
+45.2%
AAPL Fibonacci Retracement Trade
Apple (AAPL)
Price pulled back to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of prior upswing. Combined with horizontal support zone, this created a high-probability entry. Target was 127.2% extension.
Key Lessons
- Confluence of Fibonacci and horizontal support increased probability
- Conservative 38.2% retracement entry (vs deeper 61.8%)
- Used extension levels for profit targets
- Risk management allowed position sizing for multiple trades
$214.00
$235.00
$207.00
3.0:1
+9.8%
SPY Horizontal Breakout
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
SPY consolidated below all-time highs for 3 weeks, forming a tight horizontal range. Breakout above resistance with volume confirmed the move. Simple but effective pattern.
Key Lessons
- Horizontal breakouts are among the highest probability setups
- Waited for consolidation to tighten before entry
- Volume surge on breakout day confirmed conviction
- ATH breakouts often lead to extended runs
$448.00
$468.00
$440.00
2.5:1
+4.5%
ETH Trade - Stopped Out
Ethereum (ETH)
Cup and handle pattern appeared to be forming, but the handle broke down below the 50% retracement level. Stop was triggered, and price continued lower.
Key Lessons
- Not all patterns work - this is why we use stops
- Handle depth exceeded optimal 12% guideline
- Loss was contained to 7.2% vs potential larger drawdown
- Position sizing meant this loss didn't significantly impact account
$3,450
$3,200 (stop)
$3,200
N/A
-7.2%
Key Takeaways
Risk First
Every trade has a defined stop loss before entry. This is non-negotiable.
Win Rate Isn't Everything
With good R:R ratios, you can be profitable even with a 40-50% win rate.
Patterns Repeat
The same patterns work across stocks, crypto, and timeframes because human psychology doesn't change.