Trading Statistics & Success Rates
Comprehensive data on chart pattern performance, Fibonacci levels, and risk management metrics to inform your trading decisions.
Chart Pattern Success Rates
Based on Thomas Bulkowski's research analyzing thousands of pattern formations.
| Pattern | Success Rate | Avg Gain | Type | Difficulty | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head and Shoulders | 72% | 22% | Reversal | Intermediate | 4-16 weeks |
| Elliott Wave (Wave 3) | 70% | 35% | Continuation | Advanced | Variable |
| Ascending Triangle | 68% | 22% | Continuation | Beginner | 2-8 weeks |
| Bull Flag | 67% | 20% | Continuation | Beginner | 1-4 weeks |
| Double Bottom | 66% | 24% | Reversal | Beginner | 3-8 weeks |
| Cup and Handle | 65% | 25% | Continuation | Intermediate | 4-12 weeks |
| Descending Triangle | 64% | 18% | Continuation | Beginner | 2-8 weeks |
| Horizontal Breakout | 62% | 15% | Continuation | Beginner | 1-4 weeks |
| Fibonacci Retracement | 60% | 18% | Confluence | Beginner | Any |
| Symmetrical Triangle | 60% | 16% | Bilateral | Intermediate | 2-6 weeks |
Fibonacci Retracement Statistics
23.6%
Weak
Shallow retracement in strong trends
45%
Bounce Rate
38.2%
Moderate
Common bounce level
55%
Bounce Rate
50.0%
Strong
Psychological mid-point
62%
Bounce Rate
61.8%
Very Strong
Golden ratio - most significant
68%
Bounce Rate
78.6%
Deep
Last line of defense
52%
Bounce Rate
Risk/Reward Break-Even Rates
Win rate needed to break even based on your risk/reward ratio.
1:150%
Risk equals reward
1:1.540%
Risk $1 to make $1.50
1:233%
Risk $1 to make $2 (recommended minimum)
Recommended
1:325%
Risk $1 to make $3
1:420%
Risk $1 to make $4
1:517%
Risk $1 to make $5
Key Trading Statistics
90%
of retail traders lose money in the first year
70%
of trades should use 1-2% risk rule
3-5
maximum open positions recommended
2:1
minimum risk/reward ratio for consistent profits
40-60%
win rate range for profitable traders
20+
trades needed for statistical significance
What These Statistics Mean For You
Key Takeaways
- • No pattern has 100% success - always use stops
- • Higher success rate patterns are your best bets
- • With 1:2 risk/reward, 40% win rate = profitable
- • The 61.8% Fibonacci level is statistically strongest
- • Combine patterns with risk management for best results